Candidate Predictions – Split Voting vs GLM I: Theory

The most challenging and, to my mind, the most interesting part of the Herald election prediction model was the candidate vote projections. Unsurprisingly these were the least accurate part of my model. For more about that read my previous post here. To produce these predictions, I used a GLM which used party vote, previous candidate…

Election Prediction Postmortem

I did this analysis a little while ago but I have only now, nearly three full months after the election, gotten around to posting it. After the latest Colmar Brunton poll I thought it would be good time to post it and also to start my new blog. Before we begin please note that the…