I’ve adapted the Elo system I made for Super Rugby a couple of years back and will be posting predictions for each round’s matches. I’ve posted last week’s matches as well in case anyone is interested.
There’ll be a couple more posts next week with title, playoff, and conference champion odds, as well as a post outlining the methodology. The major change though is I’ve changed the scale from the traditional Elo scale to a +/- pts above average scale. I think this is more intuitive and makes it easier to understand as well as for comparison against other systems such as David Scott‘s or the TAB.
Predictions are given with home team winning as a positive value and away team as negative. The percentage is the home team’s percentage chance of winning.
| Date | HomeTeam | AwayTeam | Prediction | Home % | Correct? |
| 18-Feb | Stormers | Jaguares | 11.28 | 74% | TRUE |
| 18-Feb | Lions | Sharks | 13.57 | 80% | TRUE |
| 23-Feb | Highlanders | Blues | 13.14 | 79% | |
| 23-Feb | Rebels | Reds | -1.09 | 47% | |
| 24-Feb | Sunwolves | Brumbies | -9.28 | 30% | |
| 24-Feb | Crusaders | Chiefs | 9.71 | 73% | |
| 24-Feb | Waratahs | Stormers | 1.78 | 54% | |
| 25-Feb | Lions | Jaguares | 21.36 | 89% | |
| 25-Feb | Bulls | Hurricanes | -9.34 | 29% |
As you can see there’s a few things that seem intuitively wrong. Such as the Sunwolves having a 30% chance against the Brumbies – the bookies have them as 16.5 point dogs or which is about 17%. These should hopefully iron out after a few games.
There’s one extra thing that I’m going to add into the ratings so when I post the title odds and methodology so I’ll also re-post all of these predictions using the new system.
If you have any questions or things you would like to see with these ratings please let me know either commenting on here or via twitter @wil.undy
Area Undy the Curve 